Marlins Legacies & Xavier Edwards
Edwards is an interesting young player that the Marlins have potentially seen before.
MLB’s almost back. It’s that time of the year when March heads into April and Shohei Ohtani begins yet another MVP campaign. Last year’s best two players in the Major Leagues were both incredible power threats, going back and forth for home runs week in, week out—the only two guys to crack 50 by October.
Obviously, these are the guys people go to games to see. You’d much rather see a home run into the second deck than a measly single that skips through the gap between short and third. That’s just common sense.
But the guys who win you games are those who can get those singles through short and third. The guys who can get results from at-bats without necessarily having the most power. Those guys are along the lines of Steven Kwan and Nolan Schanuel—guys who don’t hit for homers and simply try for the bases.
That doesn’t mean Ohtani and Judge can’t get on base. In fact, 7 of the top 10 for Slugging % last season came in the top 10 for On-Base %. The two go somewhat hand in hand. Yet the on-base specialists in there carry some weight.
Xavier Edwards is along those lines.
We’ve Seen This Before
The Marlins finished the 2024 season with an abysmal 64-100 record. Having lost in the Wild Card to the Phillies the year before, their squad was blown up over the course of the calendar year and that left a widening gap for young talent to sprout up.
Among those who took the challenge was Xavier Edwards. The 24-year-old switch-hitter played most of the year at shortstop and posted a respectable .328/.397/.423 (BA/OBP/SLG) slash line. An injury had sidelined him through spring training and it was in May that he could make his first start. Having played only 70 games, he failed to qualify for quite a few ranking stats, but his numbers were still impressive.
With a 2.0 batting Baseball Reference (BRef) WAR, he ranked second in the Marlins lineup. Among batters with at least 100 plate appearances, he ranked 7th in the majors for On-Base %. While I don’t think this number would have held quite so high if he’d played more games, it’s still mighty impressive over a 70-game span and is a testament to his abilities.
Looking at his Baseball Savant report card, there’s a couple things that jump out.
His base-running comes in as one of the best in MLB and his 31 stolen bases from 35 attempts speaks volumes to that. When Edwards gets on base, he can make defenses suffer.
It’s his batting, however, that I think Miami Marlins fans have seen before. With an abysmal exit velocity, hard hit %, and bat speed, it’s no surprise that Edwards only had 16 extra base hits from 265 ABs last season (a rate of .060 which ranks 318 of 439 batters with at least 100 ABs).
Now, I’m going to show you another Baseball Savant report card but without the player’s name:
This batter also had an abysmal exit velocity, hard hit %, and bat speed, but a much better ‘expected’ batting average1. This batter isn’t as much of a threat on the base paths but he is also incredibly difficult to get out at the plate, so the trade-off of him coming up to bat has its downsides.
This batter is, of course, Luis Arráez from his 2023 season at the Marlins. Arráez is another batter who gets himself on base through non-power hitting, being notorious for his ability to maintain a great batting average against any pitcher.
Marlins fans have instantly made that connection between the two, largely on the basis of their abilities to get good contact on the ball in the zone and get the ball into play.
The big difference between Arráez and Edwards is, however, the fact that Arráez can still hit with power when needed. Edwards’s ground ball % of 52.3% ranks him in the top 50 of all batters with at least 100 PAs while Arráez only grounds on 42.2% of hits. Both get great contact on the ball on hits2, but Arráez edges out Edwards in getting them further over the field, see below.
Side note: Edwards has a couple bunts in there—this guy just loves being annoying to whichever pitcher he faces.
Edwards is a lot younger, though, so I think the upside is there for him to improve his hitting a bit.
Yet he’s still quite impressive in the majors, overall. The whole reason I wrote this piece is because of one graph that I made and accidentally found Xavier Edwards in, right at the very top.
Getting to First
Among all players in the majors with at least 100 plate appearances, Edwards ranks first in getting to just first base per plate appearance at .337. That means that Edwards gets himself to first base once every three times he comes to the plate.
That’s a remarkable ratio.
Combining that with his base-running, it’s no surprise that Edwards ranks so high in WAR (whether it be FanGraphs or BRef) relative to his playtime, even while his fielding at shortstop has been way below par (he is naturally a second baseman and even came up as a prospect there3).
Yes, Edwards will never hit the ball far (that didn't stop him from hitting for the cycle the first time he did get a home run), but Edwards will somehow, someway find a way to get on the base paths. For any team looking to win games, the best ways to score are first base or home base and he helps get that train going. He is by and large the epitome of a lead-off hitter.
He might not be among the best of the best in terms of avoiding strikeouts and getting walks, but he’s above average and can continually improve. His contact is great and his power is definitely coachable.
I think Xavier Edwards has a lot of upside for the Marlins. He’s not your typical, flashy star who goes long every at-bat and has a cannon of an arm from short (think Elly or Bobby4), but Edwards can get the job done. The Marlins have nothing going for them outside of guys like Xavier who might just make them a slightly decent team.
He’s basically the only guaranteed part of that batting lineup, too. He’s Miami’s version of Cleveland’s Steven Kwan or Arizona’s Corbin Carroll.
Well, really, he’s Miami’s new Luis Arráez. And we’ll see how long they keep their single-machine this time around.
Which attempts to measure the likelihood that a ball into play should result in a hit given the angle, location, and other factors that go into the at-bat.
The Sweet-Spot % and Squared-up % come in handy here.
Who I’d love to see win MVP this year